Taming the Envy

Capitalizing on Tehran's diplomatic smile to regional rivals and the West as a result of interim nuclear deal, Turkey commissioned a business delegation to Iran in order to explore possible investment opportunities in the Iranian gas and oil projects. Clinching Preferential Trade Agreement was also another effort in order to bolster trade ties between the two countries.
The following interview with Firouz Dolatabadi the former Iranian Ambassador to Turkey sheds further light on Turkey's motivations to expand political and economic ties with Iran and highlights the potential opportunities that lie ahead of the two neighbors.



Turkish officials and business delegations have paid frequent visits to Iran recently. It seems that Mr. Rouhani's government has opened a new chapter in the bilateral relations. Some analysts believe the change is indebted to welcoming attitude adopted by the Iranian government while others attribute it to the shift in attitude on the part of Turkey. What is your opinion?
Both Turkey and Iran have always displayed eagerness to expand their mutual relations. The Iranian officials continue to believe that high-quality relations with neighbors including Turkey could be pivotal to the security of the Middle East. On the other hand, the Turks have always eyed to extend their mutual relations with Iran into economic and industrial areas.
Despite the mutual interest, in the past few years, the relations between the two neighbors have gone rather sour due to a number of reasons including Turkey's stance on Syria, inefficient foreign policies of the previous Iranian government, highlighting the structural political differences between the two countries as well as the issues surrounding the nuclear program of Iran that played a detrimental role in our global interactions and made Turkey take cautious steps towards Iran. Fortunately, with Mr. Rouhani already in office advocating prudence and moderation in terms of cooperation with other countries and nuclear issue temporarily at ease, hopes of a Turkish-Iranian rapprochement have spurred. The change is well manifested in the recent mission of Turkish officials and business delegation and their eagerness to take the chance to improve their relations. The said reasons plus Turkey's ancient interest to build economic ties with Iran contribute to recent sweetness in the relations of two neighbors.

Given the deep divisions between Ankara and Tehran over the conflict in Syria as well as NATO Missile Defense System on Turkish soil, what could their impacts on the two neighbors' souring relationships be?
The issue of NATO Missile Defense System on Turkish soil dates back to Cold War as an unwritten international arrangement of the time. The US has always wished Iran to be out of crisis-prone military and security equations in the region and therefore, has no problems with the establishment of the Shield in Turkey. As a foreign policy analyst on Turkey, I believe this benefits Iran greatly in political give and takes. It should be noted that the Iranian top-notch officials have not taken any serious position in this regard yet and those expressions came from unofficial channels and voices.
As to Syria, there remains a huge gap between Iran and Turkey. As a country introducing Zero Problems Policy, Turkey's sudden U-turn and provision of support to Syrian rebels was unexpected. It was a big mistake and wishful thinking on the part of Turkey to assume that Assd's government, already backed as his father's by various religious and ethnic sects and parties throughout the crisis, would be toppled quickly and Muslim Brotherhood or similar groups would take over. Al-Assad family has never advocated a particular ideology but rather provided room for different groups to contribute to Syrian politics and economy, therefore, in the course of civil war, no groups or movements held any claims regarding the violations of their rights. That was the main reason behind opposition's retreat in Syria. Turkey now seems to have realized its mistake in supporting Syrian rebels. It is hoped that recent developments in relations with Iran push Turkey to recognize Damascus government and stop rendering support to opposition groups in Syria.

What were the motives behind Mr. Erdogan's recent visit to Iran? Is it an effort to open a new chapter in the bilateral relations?
I believe so. Turkish Prime Minister is one of the politicians in Ankara who has not hesitated to express his interest to build ties with Iran. In this regard, he has made every effort through various measures such as amending some anti-Iranian regulations in Turkey. The bilateral trade volume has jumped from $450 million before Erdogan's term as Prime Minister to $10 billion in the recent years.

Turkish officials eye to boost trade with Iran to $30 billion. What is your opinion?
The potential exists. It is worthwhile to note that Turkish investors and craftsmen have not entered the Iranian market yet. I believe the trade volume should go far beyond the current figure. We have a commodity of which the Turks are deprived. They have always been envious of Iran's energy reserves.

You mentioned a good point. In their visit to Iran, the Izmir Chamber of Commerce delegation visited Asalooyeh and Azadegan gas fields and expressed interest to cooperate and invest in this sector. Is Turkey technically capable to enter such undertakings?
Cooperation is not necessarily technical. There could be tripartite agreements in which one country provides funding, another technology and at the end, each country including Iran, benefits based on their contribution. The same holds true in oil and gas projects. Turkey could serve as the funder of the projects and Iranians can implement them technically. For almost 30 years, no serious hydrocarbon exploration has been conducted in Iran while there are vast reservoirs of oil and gas. In the meantime, the identified fields desperately await funding to be exploited. We could invite Turkey to fund these projects knowing that there is a potential market bonanza in Turkey for Iranian oil and gas products.

Given Turkey's stance on Syria and the diverging regional policies of the two countries, some Iranian officials seek to replace Turkey with Russia, as an alternative to reach Europe, through measures such as the $20 billion oil barter deal. What is your opinion?
This is absolutely null as Russia's relations with Europe have plummeted to their worst since the outbreak of Ukraine crisis and do not seem to be amended any time soon. In addition, Russia and European countries have long been economic rivals. Therefore, Russia is not a suitable replacement for Turkey and to me, the idea is totally rejected. In other words, it is not wise to think about replacing countries. Iran's economic capacity is high enough to cover both Russia and Turkey. Had it not been for inefficient economic policies in the past 8 years, Iran could be among the first 10 economic powers in the world today. Despite the chances lost, still today we have the opportunity to clinch a $20 billion deal with Russia and further our economic cooperation with Turkey as in case of Iraq and UAE. We will reach a higher economic growth by better economic cooperation with our neighbors. Iran enjoys a strong economy and is brimmed with potential opportunities to bolster economic ties with neighbors including Russia and Turkey. In my opinion, these countries are not rivals nor should we think of them as such.

So, you believe establishing closer relations with Turkey does not hinder our cooperation with Russia. Is it true?
Yes. That is right.

Having heard about possible Iran-Russia barter deal, the Turks also expressed interest to conclude similar agreements with Iran. Being a major importer of Iranian gas and oil, it is evident that their desired Iranian product would be energy. What should we put on such a list?
Turkey is a semi-industrialized country and an exporter of spare parts, industrial machinery and textiles. As our competitive advantage over Turkey, we could focus on exporting energy products including petrochemicals, plastics and steel, with steel having the highest potential to be exported in large amounts. Profit margin is very low in Turkey due to high energy costs. Moreover, once economic gates of the two countries are open, many other goods can be exchanged ranging from shoes to even water.

With the current developments in the nuclear program of Iran and the emerging prospects for cooperation with Europe, could we again think of Turkey as a business channel to Europe?
The capacity exists and Turkey's economic structure leaves no option but to cooperate with Iran. Apart from Turkey, there are various alternatives for Iran to reach Europe such as Iraq, Syria, the Mediterranean region or Caucasus and the Black Sea. However, it is highly improbable that the Turks ever make a move to hinder Iran's access to Europe as they have always placed high importance on expanding economic relations with the South, North, West and the East. Moreover, they are well aware of Iran's strategic position in the region and all the alternatives on the table for any possible replacement.

You pointed to Iran's "strategic position" in the region, a title also claimed by Turkey and a source of rivalry between the two countries since long ago; both countries call themselves the policy center of the Muslim world whose strategies have the potential to be followed by other countries. In the wake of Arab Spring, Turkey paid every effort to influence the Islamic countries. In Egypt the support Turkey rendered to the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) party led the downfall of Mubarak. How could the two differing viewpoints be reconciled?
Competition is the very essence of international relations without which potentials cannot be released. The main strategy adopted by Iran towards Turkey is to cooperate and compete at the same time. Iran enjoys amicable relations with Turkey, yet it does not mean all their viewpoints are recognized and accepted. Being a follower of the Western models, Turkey can never serve as a role model for other countries in terms of political relations. Islamic-Secular model is not an acceptable model for any countries to follow. On the other hand, Iran has introduced a new model through Islamic-Iranian politics that is radically different from the Western ones. The fate of Mr. Morsi's government once again highlighted that what is offered by the Turks is not an efficient governance model.

But the Turks claim the Secular-Islamic governance model is innovative.
It is still taken from the West.

Some Turkish politicians, who are also against Iran-Turkey relations, are particularly proud of this Western model.
Yes, it is true. The US and Israel-sponsored movements inside Turkey are not in favor of any improvements in Iran-Turkey relations. However, the ruling party, Justice and Development, does not care much about their viewpoints. I believe both countries have a lot to invest in expanding political and economic relations as well as hammering mutual agreements in order to ensure the security the of the region by curbing terrorism. History has shown that strong ties have always helped both countries grow; and every time the two countries turned their back on each other, both weakened.

What about the economic relations?
Energy could be a ground for mutual cooperation. Turkey needs Iran's oil, gas and their by-products. Iran also needs Turkey's investment capacities in order to increase productivity in gas and oil projects.