Coming Out of Coma

As Geopolitical rivals, Iran and Turkey have always played a major part in shaping regional developments in the Middle East. The rift over certain matters such as Syria could be well avoided had the two countries mutually strengthened their regional agreements and reconciled their conflicting approaches on matters of mutual concern. Moreover, if the bilateral relations are solidified and directed based on common interests independent of who and what party takes over the administration of each country, there will be no further tensions over divergent political approaches and no need for the two countries' top-notch officials to pay constant visits to one another to signal amity and resume cooperation. It is only through similar undertakings that the two countries can reach a stable and strategic partnership and put their turbulent past behind.
The election of Mr. Rouhani as the President of Iran and his promise to pursue a policy of "prudence and hope" gives Turkey an excellent standing to be among the first neighbors Iran seeks to rebuild ties with.
As to Erdogan's recent visit to Iran and Rouhani's plan to visit Turkey in the current month, it is worthwhile to note that although countries with strategic and solid mutual relations act independent from political changes in their countries, the move by the two presidents, as in other parts of the world, carries certain political weight and implications in their bilateral relations.
Regardless of their geographical positions as neighbors and the ensuing obligations, Iran and Turkey have far more in common to build cooperation on provided that security and development walk hand in hand in theory and in practice. The visits of the two heads of state is a positive move, however, should they go beyond mere diplomatic gestures and target more serious and strategic partnership. This, in turn, serves the common interests of both countries.
It is expected that the new chapter in Tehran-Ankara relations paves the way for a win-win situation at all levels preserving the mutual interests of both countries on equal footing. It seems that the best tool for realizing the said objective would be an attitude change on both sides in order to move past old bitterness and strained relations. In this respect, the prevailing spirit of amity in Mr. Rouhani's foreign policies replacing the past incendiary rhetoric has made Turkey give up its cautiousness towards Iran and come closer. Mr. Rouhani has received positive pulses from the international community on his new approaches toward relations with the West and regional neighbors.
Tehran-Ankara relations have followed a logical pace throughout the history. Since the establishment of Republic of Turkey in 1923, Iran has always adopted a positive approach towards this country. The trend continued even after Turkey joined NATO in the beginning of 1950s. Despite occasional political turbulences, their economic ties have remained unharmed and continuous.
Apart from Iran's oil and natural gas exports as an important driver of Turkish-Iranian cooperation, private sectors have maintained a considerable share in expanding economic ties. Both countries' chambers of commerce have tried to follow mutual cooperation and maintain stability in the exchanged goods. In 1991, Iran's export volume to Turkey stood at $58.2 million while the figure for Turkey was $ 209.8 million. In other words, in the said year, Turkey accounted for only 1.28% of Iranian exports while for Iran, the figure was 0.9%, even not hitting 1%. Unfortunately, Turkey accounted for only 1% of Iranian foreign trade volume. In the following decade, however, Turkey exported $3.3 billion worth of goods to Iran accounting for 6.4% of total Iranian import volume in 2001. On the other hand, Iran's non-oil export to Turkey was worth $1.1 billion or 4% of total Turkish import volume. In the said year, the total foreign trade volume between the two countries hit $6.5 billion. Thus, in the past 10 years, Iran and Turkey experienced a six-fold increase in their bilateral trades. Highlighting the potentials and opportunities for mutual cooperation, the officials of both countries are hoping to increase the trade figures to $30 billion; however, their private sectors believe the figure can even hit $50 billion in the next few years.
Given their plans to make investments in Iranian oil and gas projects, the Turkish are very hopeful to position themselves as a major partner in the energy market of Iran along with other international competitors. Turkey imports Iranian oil and then processes it in Turkish refineries into oil products and by-products. As in this process, the Turkish companies create added value and then pay tax to their government, efforts are always underway to keep the trend going. The export proceeds finance Iran's import of Turkish goods and services subsequently. It is undoubted that any interruption in the process damages both countries so it is of utmost importance to maintain discipline and stability in trade. Any changes in the import sources and types or oil ingredients could affect production and refining systems lowering the pace and increasing the costs. Except for the case of Turkmenistan gas transfer to Turkey, Iran-Turkey trade relations have always been and will remain stable for the years to come. Temporary tensions have left occasional adverse impacts on the relations but never stopped them. Turkey receives hundreds of thousands of Iranian tourists each year and its tourism industry gains substantial profits. Being ECO members at the same time, the two major regional powers, Iran and Turkey can invest on opportunities lying ahead of them. Iran can learn good lessons from Turkey's tourism industry. In addition, withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan creates a unique chance for mutual cooperation to rebuild the country and Iran can foster the trade links between Turkey and Afghanistan that are only separated by a landmass of vast Iranian territory.
Although the efforts paid by some movements to cut off the ties between the two countries through intensifying the tensions over Syria or NATO Missile Defense Shield have somehow soured the relationship, Iran-Turkey ties continue to prosper and the prospect for the future remains promising.